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Gold: Recent Profits & Macro Outlook
- Strats Team
- Aug 9
- 4 min read
In this market brief, we will examine recently closed trades and the future outlook for the precious metal for FY2025-26.
Date: August 09, 2025
Asset: Gold Futures ($GC / $MGC)
Distribution: Post Market
Current Market Price: $3491
Market Summary
The precious metal logged its longest stretch of gains since February, rising more than 3% over the past four days. Fears of a U.S. economic slowdown, weak labor and services sector data, and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts have buoyed sentiment in the bullion.
Macro
Briefly put, poor job growth, weak services, and downward data revisions raised recession fears. July added just 73,000 jobs, below 104,000 expected, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. The services sector nearly stalled, with firms cutting hiring amid weak demand and higher costs, as the ISM services index fell to 50.1 from 50.8 in June. This increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, with a 92% chance indicated by CME FedWatch and Polymarket, due to job data and dovish signals. Equities are expected to continue rising until the next FOMC meeting, with another key news-making event on the horizon, as Trump and Putin are set to meet on US soil in Alaska coming Friday. Lower rates boost gold's appeal over bonds. Last week, Trump announced tariff hikes, unsettling stock markets and prompting safe-haven buying. The US increased tariffs on dozens of countries, including Taiwan, India, and Canada, from 15% to 40%. Canadian tariffs rose to 35%, with others set to start this week.
New tariffs on Swiss refined gold bars entering the US would have impacted short sellers in the futures market, who are required to deliver physical gold at contract maturity, prompting a short squeeze, whereby short sellers hedge their exposure by taking long positions and squaring off the shorts to trigger a buying surge in the futures market to avoid paying additional tariffs imposed on 1KG gold bars entering the United States. This spooked the market, and as of this writing, hours after the initial announcement, the Trump administration has exempted gold bars entering the US from these tariffs to calm the market after the CBP ruling caused market confusion, according to Bloomberg. Overall, it appears normal for the precious metal; however, technically, it has been gaining momentum for an eventual breakout to the upside, but requires more clarity from upcoming geopolitical and macroeconomic events.
Recently Closed Trades on Gold
Trade 1: Long Gold Futures (Micros)
Over the past few days, we have taken a bullish perspective on Gold and executed two trades to capitalize on a bullish breakout surge, as indicated by the technicals at the time.
Technically, gold formed a bullish pattern called "Ascending Triangle" and has been respecting it thus far. Here's the chart below we sent before taking a long position in Gold Futures.
The reasoning was simple at the time of entry:
The ascending triangle pattern follows the price path shown by the black arrow
MACD & RSI turning up with a buy signal formation
Trump positioning nuclear submarines against the provocative comments of the former Russian President
Tariff-induced inflation becomes sticky, while the economy wasn't growing as expected, as evident by the recent NFP job data revisions
Equity markets correction breaking a long-standing trendline (explained in the earlier brief titled "Getting ready for the stock market correction in the US")
With this in mind, we entered a long position on Gold futures (micros) by setting the stop-loss below the support line shown in the ascending triangle. The 4-hour chart below illustrates our trade entry and exit, along with the alert screenshot sent in our Slack community. We made a decent profit from the eventual exit due to some developments on the Geopolitical front, which are now leading towards peace negotiations for the Russia-Ukraine war.
Trade 2: October Bull Put Spread on Gold Futures (December) We rolled the profits made from Trade 1 into another trade using a futures option position. We sold at-the-money, put a vertical spread to receive a greater credit for an eventual upward move we were anticipating, and to reduce our cost basis required to open the position. However, we had to close the position soon with a tiny profit after seeing progress towards the US brokered terms being acceptable for Russia, as confirmed by a government official. This is now evident, as a meeting between the two presidents is scheduled for next week.
This was somewhat a quick entry and exit, to square off the position for what would have been an even greater profit trade, for a small gain. These geopolitical developments can move the precious metal wildly up or down, and hence, it is best to get out of the position quickly.
Outlook
Our long-term perspective remains bullish on gold, and we expect to take a position soon, based on the FOMC meeting in a few weeks, which is likely to result in a rate cut. Overall, the sentiment for the dollar doesn't look great, and we may see the precious metal gain in the years 2026 and 2027.
All new trade entries on Gold-related assets, including Gold Futures and Gold ETF ($GLD), will be posted in our trading community for the next week, should another asymmetric opportunity arise with a high probability technical pattern amid a favorable market sentiment scenario.
Disclaimer: This trading brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves significant risks, including the potential loss of the entire investment. Investors should consult a financial advisor and conduct their due diligence before executing any trades. Please read the risk disclosure at OCC to understand the risk considerations required to trade options.
Notes on Assumptions: Premiums are based on direct market access tools available at our desks; actual order fills for you as a trader may vary depending upon the time of execution, broker data feed, market access, etc., among many other factors. Charts and technicals exclude fees.
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