Made 36% gain 📈 in 2 days: UNH

In this brief, we will explore our recently closed trade perspectives on $UNH and our future outlook for this health care giant. We will also explore trade overviews, payoff profiles, and various case scenarios, including technical analysis, reasoning, and future expectations for open positions we are currently holding.

Date: August 10, 2025

Asset: UnitedHealth Group Inc. ($UNH)

Distribution: Post Market

Current Market Price: $271.49

Recommendation: Bullish

Strategy: Long Call

Moneyness: At-the-money (ATM)

Investment Horizon: Short-term (15 - 30 days)

Exit duration: Closed on demand for profit

Market Summary

UnitedHealth, a high-performing giant in the healthcare sector, has been struggling this year due to a series of challenges, including a funding pullback from Medicare and the fatal shooting of its CEO, as well as controversies over its business practices, giving rise to class action lawsuits.

The stock has plunged from its November 2024 high of $630.23 per share to a low of $234.60 this August. The company's shares have lost more than half their value in the past year.

Latest Update

According to the latest 13-F filings, several institutional participants have been acquiring the stock in Q2, which has been available at a discount for the past few months. Below is a list of the top institutional holdings.

The "Big Short" investor, Michael Burry, disclosed in 13F filings that he purchased call contracts against 350,000 shares of UnitedHealth — a move echoing recent activity from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, which also took a massive $1.6 billion stake for 5,039,564 shares in the health care giant in Q2 2025.

Burry's exposure combines high-leverage call options with a more modest $6 million holding in roughly 20,000 shares of UnitedHealth's common stock, suggesting that he's betting on a sector turnaround, as Medicare Advantage rates have exceeded expectations for 2026, and as the company's competitive positioning remains strong despite recent setbacks.

Burry's long position represents a shift from his usual bearish stance, as he finds value in the heavily beaten-down stock of a high-quality company, seeking upside as UnitedHealth looks to rebuild going forward.

In summary, we have a series of 13F filings coming as of this writing, and a few notable buys are:

• Warren Buffett buys 5.03 million shares.

• Dodge & Cox buys 4.73 million shares.

• David Tepper buys 2.27 million shares.

• Renaissance buys 1.35 million shares.

• Michael Burry buys calls.

• Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) buys calls.

Technical Analysis

Examining the monthly chart, it is abundantly clear that the stock has been oversold, and a correction move upwards is expected, with a potential rise to 350+, based on the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%.

• RSI is oversold below 30

• MACD oversold and is about to form a buy confluence soon

• Price dipped to the 2018 level as shown in yellow

The yellow zone bottom isn't carved on stone, but looking to the left, it is clear that the price spent reacting to that zone on several occasions back in 2019 and 2020 before an eventual breakout to the upside. Recently, in Q2 2025, the price plummeted to $248 in May, with a brief rejection and a potential rejection again after reaching a low of $234 this month.

Zooming in on the weekly chart, we see a bullish divergence formation between the price and the MACD indicator, as the price looks to test the next resistance zone around 325, as indicated by the circle at the Fib 23.6% level.

With that said, it is safe to assume that there will be a strong recovery in a few days. Let us now examine recently closed positions and how we are positioning ourselves for the future.

Trade Overview

On August 5th, we added calls for March 2026 with a strike of $250, when the stock was trading at approximately $251 per share, making this an at-the-money call option (Delta 50).

NOTE: The trades shown are to be considered for educational purposes only and/or may be hypothetical. Please consider this brief, which provides an idea of the trade perspective at a scale suitable for large accounts. The trades taken should be well under Max Risk, which is 2% of the account equity. To have a positive expectancy over a series of trades, there should be NO DEVIATION from the max risk mandate, which is strongly emphasized on every alert.

After closing the position for a healthy 36% gain in 9 days, we have reinvested the profits in 2 call expirations for Jan 2026 and June 2026, both ATM or slightly OTM, into our portfolio, which we expect to close in profits on a potential retracement in the stock price if UNH surges past 370+, with a likelihood by Q1 2026.

Since our current open trade perspectives for January and June 2026 expiries are still open, we aren't sharing them with the general public yet and will do so after they are closed.

Conclusion

The trade doesn't require in-depth analysis, as the stock is clearly in the "margin of safety" after it has lost over half of its value this year, and is a sectoral giant with a lot of institutional activity happening lately, the stock is expected to recover sufficiently, eventually pushing our call exposure to deep in-the-money for a hefty profit.

Thank you for taking the time to read this brief. If you have any questions, please post them in the comments section, and one of our analysts will respond promptly.

Disclaimer: This trading brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves significant risks, including the potential loss of the entire investment. Investors should consult a financial advisor and conduct their due diligence before executing any trades. Please read the risk disclosure at OCC to understand the risk considerations required to trade options.

Notes on Assumptions: Premiums are based on direct market access tools available at our desks; actual order fills for you as a trader may vary depending upon the time of execution, broker data feed, market access, etc., among many other factors. Charts and technicals exclude fees.